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Google’s recent announcement of the arrival of Willow, a quantum chip that has reduced the error tendencies of some of its predecessors, is a milestone in the effort to bring quantum computing to the real world and, in the coming years, could change the form. We think about the risk of cryptocurrencies.
Willow’s speed is almost incomprehensible. according to googleIt is capable of performing a calculation in less than five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillions of years to solve. Ten septillions are 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
But the accuracy of quantum computing, until now, has also been a big problem, since quantum technology is like a garden hose running at full speed without anyone holding it: the water comes out quickly, but its target is not consistently accurate. . In theory, Willow’s combination of speed and precision could give hackers the tools to unlock the algorithms that underpin bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Qubits and bitcoin can coexist, for now
If you don’t understand (not many people do) what constitutes quantum computing (qubits), security firm DigiCert industrial technology strategist Tim Hollebeek has a simplified way of thinking about the advancement. He says to imagine a maze and how a classical computer would try to find its way through the maze from start to finish. I would try one potential path at a time. “A quantum computer could try each path at the same time, resulting in a much faster solution,” Hollebeek said.
While Willow may not be ready for real-world applications yet, its speed and accuracy will help pave the way for larger-scale quantum computers.
“Part of the problem with qubits is that they are unstable and produce errors. This chip has significant error correction capabilities, which mitigates some of the problems with qubits,” Hollebeek said.
That means chips that improve Willow’s breakthrough will be able to help hackers attack cryptocurrencies, but at least for now, the concern is only theoretical.
“In theory, quantum computers can solve this much faster and pose a threat to current cryptographic algorithms if a quantum computer with enough qubits could be developed,” Hollebeek said. But he added that the real reason to breathe easier today if you own cryptocurrencies is simple. “None exist today and are not expected to last at least another 5, 10 or 15 years,” he said, with the faster five-year timeline depending on some unforeseen technological advance.
A decade of advantage for cryptocurrencies
A Google spokesperson told CNBC that Willow and cryptocurrencies can coexist. “The Willow chip is incapable of cracking modern cryptography,” he said, adding that Google also believes quantum technology with that capability is still years away.
In fact, according to Park Feierbach, a decentralized financial technology expert who is CEO of Radiant Commons, even if Willow could dramatically increase the speed at which cryptocurrencies could be cracked, it would still take several times the age of the universe for the technology. quantum. chip to do it. According to NASA, the universe is 13.7 billion years old.
“There is almost no reason to implement Willow in this technology in a way that can achieve manageable progress. It would simply take too long,” Feierbach said.
“It is estimated that we are at least 10 years away from breaking RSA, and that it would take around 4 million physical qubits to do so,” the Google spokesperson said. RSA is an encryption system used in cryptocurrencies.
For reference, Google’s processors now scale to about 100 physical qubits.
‘Quantum-safe’ algorithms
The Google spokesperson stressed that the timeline for quantum advancements has been widely shared and Willow has not changed it.
“Google is on track with our planned roadmap,” he said. “The security community has long been aware of the projected timeline for breaking asymmetric encryption and has been working to define standards and collaboratively implement new algorithms that will resist attacks from both classical and quantum computers,” the spokesperson added.
In fact, Hollebeek says the crypto industry is working on “quantum-safe” cryptocurrencies.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has released several quantum security algorithms that are resistant to attacks by future quantum computers, Hollebeek said, and NIST has a timeline for governments and industry to implement these algorithms to ensure security. security of the nation. and business secrets.
“Google and other industry leaders have supported standardization and have experimented with the algorithms in their draft version,” the Google spokesperson said.
As efficient as quantum technology is at unlocking algorithms (traditional cryptographic equations based on the factorization of huge prime numbers), it is not infallible, and that is where the promise of quantum-safe cryptocurrencies lies.
“They’re really good at some things, but not all,” Hollebeek said, noting that breaking conventional asymmetric cryptography happens to be one of the things they’re really good at. “Fortunately, there are other hard math problems that they are bad at, and asymmetric cryptography can be updated to use those hard math problems instead of factoring,” he said.
Taqi Race, An assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, he said existing cryptocurrencies will have to evolve to protect themselves from qubits. “As the potential for quantum computers to break existing cryptography becomes more concerning, new cryptocurrencies could be developed specifically designed to be quantum safe. These new quantum cryptocurrencies would integrate PQC, cryptographic algorithms that are resistant to the computing power of computers. quantum,” Raza said.
Jeremy Allaire, co-founder, president and CEO of digital currency company Circle, told CNBC in an interview last week that the risk is real, but his vision for the future remains focused on the opportunities that will evolve. “The bottom line is that quantum cryptography means you can unlock things more easily, things that had old, faulty locks, but you can also create better locks,” Allaire said. “So quantum cryptocurrencies will actually be a big boost for crypto computing, crypto applications and crypto money.”
Raza believes that ultimately the most radical changes brought about by quantum computing will occur beyond cryptocurrencies. Advances will make devices and software faster, revolutionize AI, and improve data security with ultra-secure encryption methods. In everyday life, there will be advances in computing, healthcare, energy and security, Raza said, and as a result, it is not the crypto industry that we should think about in isolation while these changes are still developing. “They will probably transform industries,” he said.
