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In the wake of the US presidential election, international leaders have been scrambling to prepare for Donald Trump’s return to the world stage, as the divisive figure takes office for a second term.
But in Latin America there is a lot at stake. Trump has already signaled that he could rely on Latin American countries to stem the flow of cross-border migration and take advantage of the region’s economic ties to achieve the goals of his “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) platform, which calls for strict border security measures and improve the internal economy.
Some signs of tension have already begun to emerge, particularly over Trump’s threat to impose 25 percent tariffs on Mexico.
That may be a negotiating tactic, but from bolstering support for right-wing allies to taking a tougher stance on immigration, some analysts expect a second Trump term will generally be characterized by a greater willingness to apply pressure to promote US priorities in the region.
Democracy and human rights
The president of Argentina, Javier Milei, is often compared to Trump. The two have already met since the Nov. 5 U.S. election, and some in the president-elect’s circle see Milei’s cost-cutting policies as a model to follow.
But Trump’s victory also has right-wing figures in other parts of Latin America elated.
After the election, Guatemalan special prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche, an opponent of the country’s progressive president Bernardo Arévalo, posted a photo of himself on social media in a pool wearing a “Trump 2024” hat and showing a thumbs up alongside to a bottle of Don Julio Tequila.
“(There are) 61 days left until Donald Trump takes office in the United States,” he said in a separate post, apparently directed at his political rivals. “How nervous! If only they knew what was coming.”
It is not explicitly specified who “they” are, but Curruchiche has been a prominent figure in the effort to roll back Arévalo’s 2023 election victory.
Curruchiche was also sanctioned by the outgoing administration of Democratic US President Joe Biden for allegedly obstructing anti-corruption efforts.
Celebrating the victory of my friend Trump. Health. pic.twitter.com/iSEtQvrLlh
— Rafael Curruchiche (@RCurruchic25741) November 9, 2024
In countries like Guatemala and Brazil, the Biden administration quickly threw its support behind progressive leaders who won elections amid concerns that right-wing forces could overturn the vote through legal maneuvers or military force.
Progressives in the region have seen those measures as a welcome change in the long history of US intervention on the side of antidemocratic forces and dictators.
“One of the good things about the Biden administration has been a more consistent approach to promoting democracy in the region. There are some exceptions, but in places like Guatemala they have stood firm in choosing Arévalo,” said Adam Isacson, director of defense oversight at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), a research organization.
Now, Isacson believes Trump’s return to power could shift the momentum in the other direction. With Biden’s departure from the White House and Trump’s return, some politicians with a history of electoral denialism, such as Curruchiche in Guatemala and right-wing former President Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, are applauding someone they perceive as a kindred spirit.
“The far right in Guatemala is sharpening their knives right now, because they know they will have friends in the White House,” Isacson said.
Economy
During his presidential campaign, Trump praised tariffs (taxes on imports used to reduce foreign competition) as a panacea for the economic problems facing the United States.
“Tariffs have always been Trump’s tool of choice. So I have no doubt that they will be imminent,” said Juan Carlos Baker, who served as Mexico’s deputy foreign trade minister between 2016 and 2018.
Beyond their potential domestic impact, Trump sees tariffs as a useful means of pressuring countries to meet U.S. demands on a range of issues.
“This could mean saying that if Mexico doesn’t take action on migration, drugs or anything else, some tough trade decisions will be made,” Baker said.
He added that Trump could also exert economic influence against countries seeking closer relations with China, which has intensified trade with Latin America in recent years. Trump could also consider greater use of import quotas to protect American industries from foreign competition.
“It’s easy to imagine him telling a country like Argentina that they have to export less beef, or cut off the Chinese supply of some product, and if they don’t then he will make sure the IMF (International Monetary Fund) plays. We will be tough on them when “When it comes time to reexamine your outstanding debt,” Baker explained.
Crime and national security
The United States has a long history of involvement in crime and policing issues in Latin America, often in the form of supporting state forces or promoting a “iron fist” approach to problems such as drug trafficking.
With crime becoming an increasingly relevant issue in the region, those pushing for a militarized approach with less regard for civil liberties may have a sympathetic ear in the White House.
Noah Bullock, executive director of the human rights group Cristosal in El Salvador, pointed to that country’s president, Nayib Bukele, as an example.
“Bukele has tried to position himself as an ideological partner of key members of the MAGA movement and would like to position himself as part of a bloc of far-right countries in Latin America that connect with the Trump administration,” Bullock said.
In El Salvador, Bukele has gained wide popularity for cracking down on gangs through massive shows of force, using security forces to arrest and jail thousands of people on suspicion of gang association without due process.
Bukele – who once described himself as “the coolest dictator in the world” – also suspended key civil liberties and expanded law enforcement powers.
While the policy has effectively combated gang influence, accusations of rights abuses are widespread and critics like Bullock say exceptional measures are also being used to target dissent.
Although the Biden administration has expressed some concern about the state of civil rights in El Salvador, its criticism has been silenced and collaboration with the government has continued. But Bullock worries the trend could worsen with Trump back in office.
“I think it is quite clear that if the United States does not make respect for political and civil rights (and) minimum standards against torture, enforced disappearances and arbitrary detention a precondition for the partnership, there will be little incentive to that countries like El Salvador respect those standards,” he said.
Regional commitment
While some leaders hope for possible collaboration with Trump, the president-elect’s brash style and frequent use of threats could cause tension with others.
Trump and several figures likely to play a role in his administration have suggested that the United States could carry out military strikes in Mexico against drug cartels, a move that would surely provoke a fierce backlash.
While that proposal was once seen as grandstanding, Renata Segura, a Latin America analyst at the nonprofit International Crisis Group, says Mexico would view such attacks as an alarming violation of its sovereignty.
“This went from being a fringe opinion within the Republican Party to something that has been said repeatedly and should be taken seriously, and I think Mexicans are taking it very seriously,” Segura said.
“I don’t think Mexico is going to take this kind of thing lightly. “Mexico has a strong sense of sovereignty and is not going to give in and do what Trump wants,” he added.
Segura also says Trump will likely prioritize blocking migration from countries experiencing violence and instability.
But, he added, he may have little interest in efforts to address root causes.
Segura pointed to Haiti, where powerful armed gangs, some with ties to the country’s political and business elite, have exercised increasing control over large swathes of the country. An estimated 85 percent of the capital, Port-au-Prince, is currently under gang control, according to figures cited by the United Nations.
Violence in Haiti spiked following the assassination of former President Jovenel Moise in 2021, and the country is still struggling to hold elections and implement democratic norms.
For Segura, the Caribbean country occupies “the first place on the list of concerns” during a new Trump presidency.
“Haiti has been going through a prolonged political and security crisis since 2021, and the United States has been one of the leading voices in attempting to channel the efforts of the international community,” he said.
That has included financial support for a U.N.-backed contingent of Kenyan police sent to Haiti to help with security. That effort – controversial given the tense history of foreign interventions in Haiti – has so far struggled to make an impact.
Segura expects that the Trump administration will likely end the United States’ role as the main supporter of that mission. While he acknowledged that American intervention is not necessarily positive, he noted that problems could arise as a result of an American withdrawal.
“So far, the United States has been the only country that has put its money where its mouth is, and Haiti could be left alone if the United States decides to withdraw,” he explained.
