Useful information
Prime News delivers timely, accurate news and insights on global events, politics, business, and technology
Useful information
Prime News delivers timely, accurate news and insights on global events, politics, business, and technology
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine already faced a discouraging week when foreign officials met in Europe to talk about the future of his country.
The Trump administration demanded $ 500 billion in Ukrainian mineral rights, canceled the exemption of Ukraine The Ukrainian with the Ukrainian. leader.
But on Wednesday, things went bad to worse. Trump’s Secretary of Defense delivered a hard evaluation of Ukraine’s perspectives in his war with Russia. Then, Trump announced that he had spoken with President Vladimir V. Putin de Russia, a call to Mr. Trump characterized as the opening of the conversations to end the war, without any clear role for Mr. Zelensky.
The phone call also spelled the end of US efforts to isolate Russia diplomatically after its large -scale invasion of Ukraine almost three years ago
“It is on the geopolitically heels,” said Cliff Kupchan, president of Eurasia Group, a Risk analysis firm based in Washington, about Mr. Zelensky.
Mr. Trump’s actions in the last two days, which also included an exchange of prisoners with the Kremlin who freed an American teacher, pointed out a defrosted relationship between the United States and Russia that could favor Mr. Putin in a peace agreement while leaving Ukraine on the bench. Trump also called the Ukrainian leader on Wednesday, but in a publication on social networks he did not mention how, or yes, Mr. Zelensky would become peace conversations.
Mr. Zelensky will meet with Mr. Vance and Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, at the Annual Security Conference of Munich, which opens on Friday, Trump said.
Negotiations to end the most fatal war in Europe in generations will shape the future of Ukraine, and recent developments mean that part of their territory probably remains under Russian occupation.
And will shape the political future of Mr. Zelensky. He has few options to go along with the conversations led by Americans despite their deep skepticism, shared by most Ukrainians, from the preparation of Mr. Putin to negotiate without imposing onerous conditions or bring more military and economic pressure to support .
For Thursday morning, it was a feeling that turned widely in kyiv, a city now hit every night with Russian missiles and explosive drones.
Volodymyr Festenko, a political analyst, wrote on Facebook that Mr. Putin was probably playing the Trump administration for time. “He will not commit to ending the war, as Trump’s team wants,” he wrote.
Trump was not the only one to deliver sobering news to Ukraine. The new Secretary of Defense of the United States, Pete Hegseth, told European allies on Wednesday that he was not “unrealistic” that Ukraine returned to his borders as they were before Russia’s military invasion began in 2014.
He added that the United States did not support Ukraine’s goal to join NATO to ensure any peace agreement, calling it “unrealistic.”
Territorial control in Ukraine
Backed by Russian
separatist
control
Russia seized
Crimea in 2014.
Territorial control in Ukraine
Russia seized Crimea
In 2014.
Backed by Russian
separatist control
Mr. Zelensky has played weak hands much earlier. In the early days of Russia’s invasion, he left a bunker to film videos of selfies that gathered his country, and much of the world, to the cause of Ukraine.
Now again he faces a crucial moment for his country in a diminished position, sinking into domestic surveys and obtaining a cold shoulder of his most important ally.
Mr. Zelenky has twice in recent days, he said he is willing to negotiate with Mr. Putin if Western allies offer security guarantees in an agreement.
Putin, meanwhile, has pointed out that Mr. Zelensky would need to face an election at home before Russia accepted his signature on a peace agreement.
The demand suggests a Russian vision of a possible three -step process to negotiate an agreement to the war, according to a person who has had recent conversations about liquidation scenarios with high Russian officials.
Vision an initial truce and preliminary agreement, followed by elections in Ukraine and only then a binding peace agreement, said the person, speaking, on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
There have been some bright points for Ukraine. Shortly after its inauguration, Trump criticized Putin hard, saying he was “destroying” Russia with war.
And although Mr. Trump’s claim on Ukraine minerals has a great cost for kyiv, Ukrainian officials have also seen him as a hopeful sign. The conversations about mineral rights, which began on Wednesday with a visit to kyiv by the American Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, open a way for Trump to continue military aid while claiming to have obtained a benefit for the United States.
“They have essentially agreed to do that, so at least we are not stupid,” Trump said on Ukraine’s disposition to obtain his natural resources, in an interview with Fox News that was broadcast on Monday. “Otherwise, we are stupid. I told them: ‘We have to get something. We cannot continue paying this money. “
That was before Russia and the United States showed a new willingness to work together. On Tuesday, Mr. Trump’s friend and envoy, Steve Witkoff, flew a private plane to Moscow to recover an imprisoned American teacher, Marc Fogel, a remarkable gesture of conciliation by Moscow. In return, said Kremlin, the United States would deliver a Russian cybercriminal, Alexander VinnikBack to Russia.
Mr. Zelensky has rejected the repeated statements of Mr. Putin that he is an illegitimate leader, and that Ukraine needs to lift the martial law and hold elections. (The Ukrainian elections were delayed under martial law after Russia invaded in 2022. The five -year mandate of Mr. Zelensky, which would have expired last May, extended under the law).
Ukrainian officials say they see the Russian demand for democratic elections as part of a ploy to destabilize the government and force Ukraine to lower their guard to vote. They have urged the Trump administration not to support the idea.
“It is the Russians who are raising the issue of elections because they need their man in Ukraine,” Zelensky said in an interview with the British Ite News station that was broadcast last weekend. “If we suspend martial law, we can lose the army. And the Russians will be happy because the qualities of the spirit and the ability to combat will be lost. ”
However, within Ukraine, their national opponents are preparing in silence for a possible campaign.
Despite its diminished status in conversations, it is too early to rule out Mr. Zelensky, a former actor and an expert leader in a crisis, said Mr. Kupchan, an analyst at Eurasia. “It has been shown to be a rather skilled counterweight,” he said. “I don’t think we are in the final act of any work still.”
Mr. Zelensky is preparing for conversations, since the impulse in the main front of the war, in the Donbas region of East Ukraine, has favored Russia for more than a year. It is not clear for how long Russia can keep extraordinarily high low, which have been estimated by military analysts as at least in hundreds.
And Ukraine is entering conversations with a little influence: its control over a few hundred square miles of Russian territory in the Kursk region captured last summer, an incursion that was deeply shameful for the Kremlin. Mr. Zelensky said he wants to exchange territory in Kursk for the Ukrainian land controlled by the Russian, something that Mr. Putin would almost surely resist.
If the impulse of a few dozen or hundreds of yards of advances per day continue through negotiations, it would give Moscow an advantage. Then, any delay of Ukraine by accepting the terms of high fire would cost the territory of kyiv.
However, the progress of Russia has slowed since November in territory measures captured month by month, according to the Institute for the Study of War, an analytical group based in the United States. In January, for example, Russia captured approximately 40 square miles less than in December, the institute reported. Military analysts have warned that it is not possible to determine how significant that decrease is.
Anton Troianovski Contributed reports.