The public opinion of the United States about Israel is changing, the United States policy will also have to do it | Conflict from Israel-Palestine

The Zionist narrative has been a dominant force in the United States for more than seven decades. Promoted by powerful lobbies, fed by Christian evangelicals, and echoed the main media, it remained largely without being returned to the outbreak of genocide in Gaza.

In almost two years, unwavering images of horror, the scale of devastation and the impressive loss of human life have created an indomitable record of horror that has challenged the Zionist narrative. Survey after survey is registering a change in public opinion against Israel. On both sides of the political division, Americans are less and less enthusiastic about the general support for the former ally of the United States. So what does this mean for US-Israeli relations?

In the short and medium term, not much. The arms of the United States, aid, security cooperation and diplomatic support for Israel will barely be affected. You cannot expect the accumulated support structure for almost eight decades evaporating during the night.

But in the long term, the support of the United States will be reduced. This means that Israel will be forced to reconsider its aggressive position in the region and delay their plans to govern over all historical Palestine.

What the surveys say

The surveys began to obtain a change in the public opinion of the United States, especially among young Democrats, even before the attacks of October 7, 2023. But then, this change seemed dramatically.

TO survey Performed by Pew Research in March of this year, it suggests that negative attitudes towards Israel have increased from 42 percent to 53 percent of all American adults since 2022. Change is more pronounced among Democrats, from 53 percent to 69 percent for the same period.

The remarkable thing about this change is that it is intergenerational. Among the Democrats 50 years or more, people who are generally moderate in foreign policy issues, negative attitudes towards Israel increased from 43 percent to 66 percent.

The expressions of sympathy have also changed. According to an August survey (PDF) For the economist and Yougov, 44 percent of the Democrats sympathize more with the Palestinians, compared to 15 percent with the Israelis; Among the independents, these figures are 30 and 21 percent.

The same survey suggests that a plurality of Americans now believes that the continuous bombing of Gaza de Israel is unjustified, and about 78 percent want a high immediate fire, including 75 percent of Republicans. The percentage of respondents who said that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinians was 43 percent; Those who did not agree were only 28 percent.

More significantly, a plurality (42 percent) favors the decrease in support for Israel; Among Republicans this number is 24 percent.

A Harvard-Harris survey (PDFJulio reveals perhaps the most worrying trend for Israel’s defenders: 40 percent of Americans now favor Hamas, not Israel. While this is probably a reflection of general sympathy by the Palestinians, it shows significant cracks in the domain of the narrative of “Palestinian terrorism” of Israel among young Americans.

The same survey suggested that only 27 percent support the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a disastrous vote of non -confidence that is very far from the welcome he has enjoyed in the White House and Congress.

How can politics change

As the major voters, Israel’s last electoral strength give way to the younger voters most supportive with the cause of Palestinian rights, political mathematics will change towards a deep political change. The question is no longer whether the United States will reconsider its special relationship with Israel, but when.

The special relationship with Israel is one of those rare problems for which there is bipartisan support. Changing that would take a long time.

Of course, in the short term, there are some possible changes. If there is a sudden gap between Netanyahu and the president of the United States, Donald Trump, perhaps even on a personal level, the latter will have the surveys to justify a departure from Israel. The clear change in public opinion would provide the political cover that is listening to the American people. However, such dramatic change is probable.

What is most likely that, under public pressure, Congress members will begin to change Israel-Palestine more and more. Those who refuse to be stubbornly can be challenged by younger and more energetic candidates who reject the funds of Pro-Israel organizations such as AIPAC.

However, the change in Congress would take a long time, especially since there will be strong resistance to it. Lobby pro-Israel groups consider this as a fundamental moment in American-Israeli history. They will use their vast resources to eliminate any candidate who expresses sympathy for the Palestinians or questions automatic support for Israel.

In addition, other issues, such as the economy and several social evils, will continue to dominate political agendas; Foreign policy rarely shapes the United States elections.

The transition will not be a bipartisan in the short term. Republican support to Israel is more consistent. The Democratic establishment has been under a growing pressure of its base since the presidency of Joe Biden. As younger members obtain political ancestry, as evidenced by the spectacular victory of the Mayor’s Office of New York, Zohran Mamdani, in democratic primaries, democratic leadership will be forced to change the tactic.

With more pro-Palestinian officials chosen in office, especially in Congress, the progressive block will grow and intensify the pressure to change the policy from the inside.

However, this process will not be quick enough to immediately improve the situation in Palestine or even stop Gaza’s imminent ethnic cleaning. It is more likely that relief is due to international pressure and developments in the field instead of a change in the policy of the United States.

However, in the long term, the support of Israel of Congress or even a president of the United States would mean that the Israeli government would have to change its position too aggressive in the region and control its adventurous militarism. It is likely to be forced to make concessions on the Palestinian issue. It remains to be seen if this would be enough to establish a Palestinian state.

The opinions expressed in this article are typical of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.