The great Jobs report of January comes out on Friday. This is what you should expect

The US labor market probably began 2025, if it is a little beyond where it closed the previous year.

When the Labor Statistics Office releases its non -agricultural payrolls, they have for January, it is projected to show a growth of 169,000, below 256,000 in December, but almost in line with the average of three months of the last. It is projected that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%, according to the consensus of Dow Jones for the report, which will be released on Friday at 8:30 am et.

While the conclusion could be that job creation is slowing down, the widest opinion is that the employment image remains solid and is not likely to be a problem for the Federal Reserve at any time in the near future.

“With inflation at least for now to tolerable levels and companies and very comfortable companies making a sustained investment, there is no reason why we should not continue to see employment growth around 150,000 per month, which is the upper end of what That is needed to maintain stable labor, “said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist of RSM. “In other words, we are in full employment. This is a good problem to have.”

By the time the Fed concluded its last three meetings of 2024, it had reduced its key indebtedness rate at a complete percentage point. In large part, this was due to the fact that policy formulators sought to support a labor market that showed signs of weakening.

However, recent indicators show that although hiring has been leveled, layoffs are not increasing and workers do not renounce, although work openings are in decline.

Such a relative stability is a welcome signal with the probability that the Fed is waiting, possibly until summer, while officials wait to see the consequences of the fiscal agenda of President Donald Trump that includes aggressive tariffs against the largest US business partners .

“The economy will still move forward, people will make investment decisions, they will get up every morning and go to work,” said Brusuelas.

Although the usual payroll number is expected to show more or less status quo conditions, the markets will also see annual reference reviews for both the establishment and household surveys that the BLS compiles.

When the initial reviews were published in August 2024, they showed a Impressive 818,000 less created jobs than previously reported in the establishment count from April 2023 to March 2024. This total is expected to decrease considerably as adjustments for immigration and population are made.

It is also projected that the reviews show a record increase of 3.5 million in the population and 2.3 million in employment at home, according to Goldman Sachs. The firm sees more modest adjustments in the participation and unemployment of the workforce.

The two BLS surveys have deferred sharply in the years after the COVID. The establishment survey is used to calculate the number of non -agricultural payrolls, while the BLS derives the unemployment rate of household count. The latter has shown a less optimistic vision of employment conditions that could be corrected with reviews.

In any case, if the report reaches expectations near expectations, it is unlikely to move the needle for the Fed even with the persistent tariff question.

“The labor market is much more important for the Fed than what is happening with tariffs,” said Eric Winograd, director of economic research of the market developed in Allianbernstein. “Payrol numbers are volatile. Anything can happen in a certain month. But there is nothing in particular that makes me think that this month’s impression will be significantly different from those of the last ones, and that is enough to keep The fed waiting. “

In addition to the title numbers and payroll reviews, the BLS will release data on average in a profit per hour.

The estimate is for January to show a 0.3% increase in salaries and an increase of 3.7% of 12 months. If the annual figure is correct, it will be the lowest level since July 2024.