Russia appears to withdraw its forces in Syria

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Russia appears to be withdrawing some of its forces based in Syria following the sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, according to an analysis of satellite photographs and an assessment by Ukrainian intelligence.

Images captured by Maxar and Planet Labs reveal an increase in ground vehicles at Hmeimim Air Base, the arrival of several large transport aircraft and the dismantling of Russian air defense systems, all factors consistent with forces gathering there to leave.

A senior Ukrainian official agreed that it appeared Moscow was moving a significant amount of material out of the country. However, it is unclear whether the activity is the start of a partial or full withdrawal.

Michael Kofman, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said: “This drawdown may signal a complete Russian exit from Syria, but it is too early to tell.”

Russia’s presence in Syria is a legacy of its intervention in the Syrian civil war since 2015, when it deployed several thousand troops and air support to support Assad’s fight against rebels.

The Kremlin has said its future in the country will depend on negotiations with a new government in Damascus after Assad fled a lightning rebel offensive on Sunday. He has now been granted asylum in Moscow.

Losing the Hmeimim air base – and the Russian naval base in Tartus – would be a strategic problem for Moscow, as they are used as logistics centers for the country’s activities in the Mediterranean, as well as its operations in Africa.

Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said Thursday that Moscow was holding “constructive” talks with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel group that led the offensive and is expected to maintain its military presence in the region.

“The bases were there at the request of the Syrian authorities with the aim of fighting terrorists and ISIS,” Bogdanov said, according to Interfax. “I guess everyone agrees that the fight against terrorism and what’s left of Isis is not over.”

He added: “It requires collective efforts, and our presence and base in Hmeimim played an important role in the context of the broader fight against global terrorism.”

Analysts have said Russia could offer the new Syrian government money, energy supplies or gold and diamonds it is mining in Africa, as well as a possible broader political partnership. A former senior Russian official told the Financial Times that Russia was approaching HTS with “friendship and love.”

Maxar footage of Hmeimim captured two An-124 aircraft on the runway at Hmeimim Airport. The An-124 is the largest heavy lift aircraft in the world, capable of carrying around 150 tons of cargo.

Three Il-76 transport planes, Russia’s workhorse, were also grounded. Also seen in the photographs were three An-32s and one An-72, smaller models of transport aircraft.

Kofman also noted that the transport and launcher systems used for the S-400 air defense systems at the base appear to have been dismantled.

Blogs supporting the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine also posted images on Telegram of a large column of Russian military vehicles heading towards the base in Hmeimim, and another driving in the direction of Tartus. The columns, which were stopped on the side of the road, included trucks with Russian flags, as well as armored personnel carriers and other equipment.

Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, GUR, said in a statement that “the remains of the Russian military contingent from the most remote regions of Syria are being withdrawn to the Tartus and Hmeimim naval and air bases.”

“Every day between Hmeimim and Russian airfields fly between four and five military transport planes,” says the GUR.

Buzz base footage The image taken this week by Syrian Television shows the extent of Russia’s permanent presence in Hmeimim: fighter and bomber planes, as well as helicopters, are still housed in the base’s hangars.

At the Tartus naval base, two port-based Russian frigates are currently waiting outside the base. However, a withdrawal by sea would be slower. GUR stated that two Russian ships previously used for military logistics were heading from the Baltic towards the port.