November retail inflation cools to 5.4% as vegetable prices decline and falls within RBI’s tolerance limit

Retail inflation slowed to 5.48 percent in November compared to 6.21 percent in October, mainly due to lower food prices, especially vegetables, according to government data released on December 12. . The latest figures are within the RBI’s upper 6 per cent tolerance level.

“During the month of November 2024, a significant decrease in inflation is observed in the subgroups of vegetables, legumes and products, sugar and confectionery, fruits, eggs, milk and products, spices, transportation and communications, and personal care and effects.” said the ONE. in a statement.

According to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data published by the National Statistics Office (ONE), food inflation fell to 9.04 percent in November. It was 10.87 percent in October and 8.70 percent in November 2023.

Retail inflation has remained stubbornly high, with food prices wreaking havoc and often breaching the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee’s tolerance band of 2 to 6 per cent. In October, retail inflation hit a surprising 14-month high of 6.21 percent and vegetable inflation hit a 57-month high of 42.2 percent.

Last week, the Reserve Bank raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 4.8 per cent from 4.5 per cent. It also said persistent pressures on food prices are likely to keep headline inflation elevated in the December quarter.

Headline inflation based on the consumer price index (CPI) increased from an average of 3.6 percent during July-August to 5.5 percent in September and 6.2 percent in October 2024.

In October, inflation rose to 6.2 per cent, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upper tolerance threshold of 6 per cent. This was the first time in 14 months, since August 2023, that inflation exceeded this level. The increase was mainly due to the increase in food prices, particularly vegetables.

Meanwhile, data from the Ministry of Statistics showed that factory output, measured by the index of industrial production (IIP), increased by 3.5 percent year-on-year (yoy) in October 2024. Manufacturing sector output grew by 4 .1 percent compared to 10.6 percent in the month of the previous year. In the April-October period, IIP grew 4 percent, compared to 7 percent in the same period last year.