Morning Glory: The risk Republicans run by delaying tax legislation

Congressional Republicans have a narrow window for a big victory: If the House GOP can stay united and agree on a budget resolution with the Senate GOP and President-elect Trump, every employer and employee in America will get a Huge win by end of February: Expansion of Trump tax cuts.

But the debate among Republicans right now is whether to take the wide door or the narrow door. Right now it seems that the Congressional Republican Party is heading for the wide door. What a bet. What a great bet! What an unnecessary risk!

If the GOP can hold its majorities together, it will be able to pass not one but two budget reconciliation packages by early summer. This would give more time to refine the fiscal package, which is admittedly complex.

But they could get more than 70% of the fiscal package right now, along with big increases on the border and our military rebuild. There’s a lot of disagreement among Republicans over some of the fine print of the IRS code, and that means tough negotiations are ahead over some provisions of the tax code. But the cliché of the moment should be: the perfect should not be the enemy of the good. That’s what’s happening right now.

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If for some reason the Republican majority in the House of Representatives fractures (and the majority is so narrow that those majority-destroying reasons are going to arrive like the omnipresent Beltway pollen in April), the second reconciliation will not get over the line and there will be a massive tax increase. It will arrive at all companies in the United States on January 1, 2026.

Small businesses need certainty more than anything. They cannot be certain about marketing effectiveness or the best product mix. But they absolutely need certainty about the tax code. So do retirees seeking withdrawals from their savings. The same goes for large-cap corporations looking to make huge investments in manufacturing or data facilities. All of these decisions are on hold until Congress provides the people it represents with certainty about at least most of the IRS Code.

HOUSE GOP FISCAL HAWKS WARN TRUMP’S TAX CUTS IN DANGER OF EXPIRING UNDER NEW PLAN BACKED BY THE SENATE

President-elect Trump would do well to demand “all of the above” in the first reconciliation. Some members of Congress are listening to top Trump adviser Stephen Miller’s demand for immediate legislative action on the border and confusing that consistent and coherent message with “Only the border matters.” Miller is absolutely right to continue to insist on the need to fully authorize and fund the completion of the Wall, the expansion of Border Patrol and ICE facilities and authorities, 100%.

But Miller is No saying that the president-elect wants only the border and immigration provisions of the first budget reconciliation package. In addition to border provisions and military rebuilding, Trump promised to extend and revise his signature tax cuts. It must deliver on that promise, which, in fact, unlocks the economic renaissance and productivity gains the country needs to calm inflation, reduce interest rates, and boost genuine economic growth.

The United States Capitol building is seen in Washington DC, the United States, on December 2, 2024. (Celal Gunes/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The country’s private sector needs certainty about the tax code. As soon as possible and to the extent possible. Trump wants a second boom, the kind of economy he presided over before COVID paralyzed the world for two years.

It’s all there for the taking, but the Congressional GOP has been reluctant to demand the discipline to do it all right now. It’s the biggest gamble I’ve seen since Leader McConnell announced there would be no hearings or votes on any nominee to replace Justice Scalia after the great man died so unexpectedly in early 2016.

McConnell rightly perceived that the direction of the Supreme Court was a crucial issue, that Americans cared deeply about our fundamental trust in the Constitution as written and amended. McConnell made a big bet, which Trump saw and raised with the publication of his list of possible nominees during 2016 and which Barack Obama wrongly discarded when nominating Merrick Garland. Trump and McConnell (and the Constitution) won.

Now, however, the Republican majorities in Congress are sending signals of timidity in the face of an enormous opportunity. Senators and representatives have to focus and act to win a huge victory right now. Not just the border bills. Not just military reconstruction. But tax cuts and, in fact, much more.

A view of the United States Capitol in Washington DC, United States, on November 4, 2024. Anthony Brandisi served one term in the United States House of Representatives. (Nicolás Economou/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

It is a rare moment of opportunity for free markets and free people. But Congress has to seize the moment and pass a big bill, a huge bill that will change the rules of the game. Fortune favors the bold, as does the 2026 election. Do you want to maintain and grow Republican majorities? Release the American businessman sooner rather than later (or never if bad things happen to the slim House majority).

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Trump is going to get his nominees. And you will be able to get everything you demand in the first budget and reconciliation. We hope the Transition Team will make time for the president-elect to speak with President Mike Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Thune to explain his “must-haves.” Trump, the developer, will know that opportunities are fleeting. Hopefully, it will persuade the Republican Party to act as if its majority disappeared in April. Because it could be.

The ghost of Jim Jeffords should be haunting both sides of the Capitol right now. And if you don’t understand that reference, you won’t understand why there is a real urgency right now.

Hugh Hewitt is the host of “The Hugh Hewitt Show,” heard weekdays from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. ET on the Salem Radio Network and simulcast on the Salem News Channel. Hugh Wakes Up America on over 400 affiliates nationwide and on all streaming platforms where SNC can be seen. He is a frequent guest on the Fox News Channel news roundtable hosted by Bret Baier weekdays at 6 pm ET. A native of Ohio and a graduate of Harvard Law School and the University of Michigan Law School, Hewitt has been a professor of law at Chapman University’s Fowler School of Law since 1996, where he teaches Constitutional Law. Hewitt launched his eponymous radio show from Los Angeles in 1990. Hewitt has appeared frequently on all major national news television networks, has hosted television programs for PBS and MSNBC, written for all major American newspapers, is an author of a dozen books and has moderated twenty Republican programs. candidate debates, most recently the November 2023 Republican presidential debate in Miami and four Republican presidential debates in the 2015-16 cycle. Hewitt focuses his radio show and column on the Constitution, national security, American politics and the Cleveland Browns and Guardians. Hewitt has interviewed tens of thousands of guests, from Democrats Hillary Clinton and John Kerry to Republican Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump during his 40 years in broadcasting, and this column previews the main story that will propel his radio and television program today.

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