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As the United States goes back humanitarian assistance in Southeast Asia, its Chinese rival can see the opportunity to expand its influence in a region where it has directed billions of dollars in investment and help, according to analysts.
In just over three weeks since the inauguration of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, Washington has frozen almost all foreign aid and has moved to effectively abolish the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), a Long source of soft power in the region.
USAID, the largest disbursement for American foreign aid, spent $ 860 million only in Southeast Asia last year, financing projects in everything, from the treatment of HIV to the preservation of biodiversity and the strengthening of local governance.
Many projects, which are executed mainly through subsidies to local NGOs, face an uncertain future when the Trump administration takes the United States from the world stage as part of its “America First” agenda.
For Beijing, circumstances provide an ideal opportunity to intervene, said Yanzhong Huang, a member of global health in the Foreign Relations Council.
“The suspension of health, education and humanitarian programs, the key pillars of American soft power, can create vacuum cleaners that China can fill out,” Huang told Al Jazeera.
“This strategic retirement could strengthen Beijing’s influence throughout the region, particularly in current American aid receptors such as Indonesia, Philippines, Myanmar and Cambodia.”
As the Trump administration generated headlines with its movements to Gut Usaid last week, Beijing was news when intervening with $ 4.4 million to finance an extraction project in Cambodia that Washington had left in the shake.
HENG Ratana, head of the Cambodian mine action center, told the Khmer Times newspaper that Chinese aid would help its organization eliminate more than 3,400 hectares (8,400 acres) of land full of land mines and unleashed municipalities.
China’s embassies in the United States, Cambodia and Thailand did not respond to requests for comments from Al Jazeera.
Joshua Kurlantzick, main member of Southeast Asia and southern Asia in the Foreign Relations Council, said that USAID’s disappearance occurs when the influence of the United States in the region is decreasing in general and when China scale its public diplomacy.
Southeast Asia leaders are concerned about “chaotic policies” in the United States, Kurlantzick said to Al Jazeera, particularly in countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, where the United States dedicates significant assistance and security assistance.
“Beijing is already portraying the United States as indifferent and unable to lead regionally or globally and I hope Beijing increases his help and investment now in many parts of the developing world,” Kurlantzick told Al Jazeera.
While the future of many USAID programs in the region is not clear, some analysts believe that China is likely to leave projects with a more political or ideological approach with other partners in the region, such as the European Union, Australia, Japan or the Asian development. Project, a regional development bank based in Manila.
“The existing international or international development program of China is quite considerable. But it turns out to be quite different from what Usaid does, since the latter seems to be dedicating many resources to initiatives based on ideology, for democracy, for LGBTQ, for diversity, inclusion, for climate change, “John Gong , a professor of economics at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, he told to Jazeera.
“If China is going to enter the vacuum unemployed by the United States, I am very skeptical. We are talking about different things here. And besides, I don’t think the Chinese government is interested in competing with Washington on this front, ”said Gong.
China’s foreign assistance has been strongly directed to the infrastructure, as established in the Belt and Road (BRI) initiative, the Beijing flagor infrastructure investment project that is worth more than $ 1 billion.
Other projects, such as their hospital ship, Peace Ark, have provided medical assistance.
Almost all foreign aid from China to Southeast Asia, around 85 percent, has taken the form of non-concessional loans with an approach to energy and transport, according to Grace Stanhope, an associate of research at the Indo-Indoor Development Center Pacific of the Lowy Institute.
Beijing’s heavy infrastructure approach has made it a visible presence in the region, although it is not always popular, Stanhope told Al Jazeera, due to “explosive” delays and budgets for projects such as the East Coast Rail Link in Malaysia and Yakarta -Bandung High Speed Railway Line in Indonesia.
Some critics have referred to these and other projects as a form of diplomacy of “debt trap” aimed at generating dependence on China, a position that Beijing has denied.
In a survey conducted by the Iseas Yusof-Ishak Institute based in Singapore last year, 59.5 percent of respondents in 10 Southeast Asian countries chose China as the most influential economic power in the region.
However, just over half expressed distrust of China, with 45.5 percent fearing that China could threaten their country economically or militarily. Japan was seen as the main “more reliable” power, followed by the United States and the EU.
Although infrastructure centered, China has slowly trying to change its assistance model towards a more “soft” help, such as public health, agriculture and digitalization, said Joanne Lin, the main member of the Center for Studies of the ASEAN of the Iseas Yusok Institute. Singapore.
“The scope of China’s help will depend, of course, the economic capacity of China, since it faces limitations, such as its slowdown, growth and commercial tensions with Washington can limit their ability to replace US help in its entirety,” Lin to Al Jazeera said.
Lin said that Southeast Asian countries prefer a “diversified approach” for foreign aid and development assistance that does not depend on a single donor, whether the United States or China.
Despite its high profile presence in Southeast Asia, China has been reducing its development assistance in the region in recent years.
Although China was the main donor from the region from 2015 to 2019, since then it has slipped to fourth place, according to the Lowy Institute.
The financing has been exhausted in a similar way, falling from $ 10 billion in 2017 to $ 3 billion in 2022, according to the group of experts.
China faces their own home problems, including the slowdown in economic growth and high youth unemployment, which could limit its focus on issues abroad, said Steve Balla, associate professor of Political Science and International Affairs at the George Washington University .
“National problems can serve to limit the attention of (Chinese President Xi Jinping) to international affairs. Problems with Belt and Road can limit regime options on how to enter spaces left by the United States, ”Balla told Al Jazeera.
Bethany Allen, Chief of Research and Analysis Program of China at the Institute of Strategic Policy of Australia, expressed a similar feeling.
“China is already taking advantage of the disconnection of the United States in Trump’s first era by deepening its economic, diplomatic and cultural influence in Southeast Asia. Initiatives such as the Belt and Road initiative, Confucius, and the Lancang-Mekong cooperation mechanism are tools to expand soft power, ”Allen told Al Jazeera, referring to a global program to promote the study of Chinese language and culture , and a forum to promote cooperation between China and Mekong’s subregion.
“However, China’s reduction of economic growth means slowing the BRI, which results in the country’s soft power project could be less aggressive than in the last decade. The concerns of high profile debt and setback against Chinese influence (in Malaysia and Indonesia) also limit their attraction, ”he said.
