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“If you had to point to one reason (cryptocurrency prediction markets) can return to the US, you have to point to the Trump administration,” says Zach Hamilton, founder of cryptocurrency startup Sarcophagus, in an interview with WIRED. “Donald Trump. I mean, that’s it.”
Even before the arrival of Truth Predict, the Trump family had a financial interest in the expansion of prediction markets in the United States.
In January, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as strategic advisor. Then in August, Polymarket received an investment of 1789 Capital, a venture capital firm where Trump Jr. is a partner. As part of the deal, Trump Jr. joined Polymarket’s advisory board.
Ties between the Trump family and Polymarket, forged just as Polymarket was seeking to re-enter the United States, have drawn scrutiny from critics who say the investment could amount to a conflict of interest. The deal creates an opportunity, they argue, for the Trump family to benefit from policy changes instigated by the Trump administration.
“No one is saying that members of the president’s family can’t engage in normal capitalist activities in a capitalist country,” says Jeff Hauser, executive director of the Revolving Door Project, an organization that seeks to scrutinize the behavior of elected officials. “But Polymarket is the subject of heated political controversy. As such, the investment reflects a significant conflict of interest, and an avoidable one.”
“Neither the president nor his family have and will never engage in conflicts of interest,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says in a statement to WIRED.
Polymarket, TMTG and 1789 Capital did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The launch of Truth Predict also raises a scenario in which different facets of the Trump family’s business empire could effectively compete with each other.
“From a venture capital perspective, many of us don’t like investing in competitive projects. We try to avoid it,” says Chris Perkins, managing partner at crypto VC firm CoinFund. “We try to identify the winners of the categories.”
Companies connected to the Trump family are already operating competing bitcoin treasuries. In June, a dispute broke out over which corporate entities could launch an “official” Trump-branded crypto wallet.
