Can Sonic 3 defeat Disney’s Lion King prequel at the box office?

It seems box office showdowns have become all the rage in the wake of last year’s Barbenheimer phenomenon, with “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” becoming massive hits. Earlier this year, we saw “The Garfield Movie” and “Furiosa” go head-to-head, but the whole Garfield thing didn’t catch on, to put it mildly. More recently, “Gladiator II” and “Wicked” gave us the double bill that was Glicked, which was another huge hit. To end the year, we have Paramount’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” competing with Disney’s prequel “Mufasa: The Lion King.” While I don’t have a cute nickname for this matchup (Mufasic?), theaters will be the winners here.

Currently, it appears that “Sonic 3” has the advantage over “Mufasa.” As of this writing, director Jeff Fowler’s third live-action “Sonic” movie is expecting a debut of at least $55 million, while director Barry Jenkins’ 2019 “Lion King” prequel is looking for around $50 million at its premiere. weekend, by early follow-up (via Deadline). That said, in both cases, those early projections could be low.

the people of Box office theory Currently “Sonic 3” earns between 62 and 71 million dollars. That would put it in line with 2022’s “Sonic the Hedgehog 2,” which grossed $72 million in its debut, a record for a video game movie. For what it’s worth, the film ended its global run with $405 million worldwide against a $90 million budget. It was a significant increase from the first film, which grossed just over $300 million in 2020.

The outlet also has “Mufasa” earning between $55 and $65 million domestically. Of course, that’s a significant decline from the ridiculous $191.7 million opening posted by 2019’s “The Lion King,” which ultimately grossed a staggering $1.66 billion worldwide and became one of the most important films of all time. But that was then, this is now. The theatrical landscape has changed. Even so, an opening in that range is nothing to sneeze at. With a weak January slate, both films are also well positioned to make money in the coming weeks.

“Sonic the Hedgehog 3” centers on Sonic, Knuckles and Tails, who must team up against a powerful new enemy, Shadow. Team Sonic must seek out an unlikely ally in hopes of stopping Shadow and protecting the planet. Keanu Reeves (“John Wick”) joins the cast as the voice of Shadow, and the rest of the main cast from the first two films return, including Jim Carrey as Dr. Robotnik. On this film’s side will be audience reception, as the first wave of reactions to “Sonic 3” has promised another crowd-pleasing film.

Meanwhile, “Mufasa: The Lion King” focuses on Rafiki, who tells the legend of Mufasa to Kiara, Simba and Nala’s daughter. Told in flashbacks, the story features Mufasa as an orphaned cub who meets a friendly lion named Taka, the heir to a royal bloodline. Jenkins previously made the Best Picture winner for “Moonlight,” and his presence behind the camera appears to be his biggest asset. For as much money as the first film, it was not well regarded by critics.

As far as “Sonic” goes, it looks like money in the bag for Paramount. They’ve kept the budgets reasonable and the audience is there. Even if it once again meets expectations, it should reach $400 million worldwide. If January is very slow and audiences love Shadow, there’s no telling how big it could be.

As for “Mufasa,” there’s something to be said for the fact that the original “The Lion King” was one of Disney’s biggest hits of the ’90s and remains a fan favorite to this day. If Jenkins lives up to his expectations, even if the opening weekend is relatively soft, he could easily pull through. Let’s not forget that Jon Favreau’s 2019 film grossed over $1.1 billion overseas. Even if the prequel makes a third of what the last one made, we are looking at a global success of 550 million dollars. Either way, this is money movie theaters will be happy to have during the holiday season and in the choppy waters of January.

“Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and “Mufasa: The Lion King” will hit theaters on December 20, 2024.