13 Habits of Highly Effective Risk Takers

I played poker professionally before writing about politics or building an electoral model. What really fascinates me about the game is the mindset that drives this behavior: a mindset that unites a cohort I call “the River.”

The River is an expanding ecosystem of like-minded people that includes everyone from low-stakes poker pros to cryptocurrency kings and venture capital billionaires. It is a way of thinking (analytical, abstract, competitive, contrarian) and a way of life. Most “Riverians” are not rich or powerful, but rich and powerful people are disproportionately likely to be Riverians.

I call the following the “13 Habits of Highly Effective Risk Takers.” River’s quantitative risk takers and physical risk takers (astronauts, deep-sea explorers, NFL players) have these traits in common. Based on my research, I hold the opinion that there is something inherent in people who seek risk and approach it successfully. How many do you share with them?

Successful risk takers stay calm under pressure

Being calm when other people lose their minds is a rare and essential quality for a winning player. No matter how well you execute in everyday situations, you’ll never reach the peak of your ability if you choke when the pressure is on.

They have courage

In poker and sports betting, the vast majority of players lose money. Being on top requires careful balance. Overconfidence can be deadly in the game, but playing poker against the best is not for the faint of heart.

They have strategic empathy

They put themselves in their opponent’s shoes, but don’t confuse this with the touchy-feely type of empathy. In psychological studies, there is a negative correlation between systematic thinking (which Riverites are skilled at) and empathetic behavior. Strategic empathy comes up a lot in poker, which is largely a math game and a people game.

They are process-oriented, not results-oriented.

They play the long game. “Don’t be results oriented” is a mantra ingrained in many poker players. Yes, in the long run it’s the results that count, but one good thing about River is that our compensation ultimately depends on objective measures.

They take shots

They are explicitly aware of the risks they take and are comfortable with failure. In an episode of the American version of the officethe endearingly moronic boss, Michael Scott, misappropriates a quote from hockey player Wayne Gretzky: “You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.” There is something to be said about that.

They have a raise or fold attitude

They abhor mediocrity and know when to quit. The cardinal sin of poker is that most players play it too often. There are three basic actions in poker: call, fold and raise. People press the call button too much. They call because they want to bet, but although players call when they should fold, they also pay when they should raise.

they are prepared

They make good intuitive decisions because they are well trained, not because they “improvise.” What bothered private equity investor and explorer Victor Vescovo Top Gun: Maverick was Tom Cruise’s insistence that you had to improvise your way out of a sticky situation: “The best military operations are the ones that are very boring, where things go exactly as planned. “No one has ever put them in danger,” he said. “You want to minimize the risks. While Top gun It looked great on film, that’s not how you would try to eliminate that lens.”

They have great attention to detail

They understand that attention is a scarce resource. In poker, one of the unusual features of the game is that most of the time, you have exactly nothing to do: there’s a lot of waiting. You need to carefully calibrate your mental bandwidth, conserving energy but being ready to spring into action.

They are adaptable

They are good generalists, taking advantage of new opportunities and responding to new threats. I call this type of personality Zorro. Consider the saying of the Greek poet Archilochus: “The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one very important thing.” Foxes look for opportunities, fearful of complacency and becoming too tied down. This is a habit to which there are some exceptions. In particular, startup founders need to focus on one big goal and be prepared to see it for a decade or more.

They are good estimators

They are Bayesians, comfortable quantifying their intuitions and working with incomplete information. Does the difference between 90 percent and 93 percent really matter?

They try to stand out, not fit in

Independence of mind and purpose are characteristics of the great achiever.

They are consciously contrary

They have theories about why and when conventional wisdom is wrong. There is a distinction between independence and opposition. If I choose vanilla and you choose chocolate because you like chocolate better, you are being independent. If you choose chocolate because I chose vanilla, you are being contrarian. The inhabitants of River can be accused of being contrary when in reality they are independent. If I do the conventional thing 99 percent of the time and you do it 85 percent of the time, you’ll look rebellious in comparison, but you’ll actually go with the flow.

They are not carried away by money

They are not ascetics, but poker players are distinguished for two reasons. First, they are so fiercely competitive that money primarily serves as a way to keep score; and secondly, betting with such high stakes requires a certain desensitization to them.

Adapted from To the limit: the art of risking everything, by Nate Silver.