CEO optimism rises after Trump’s election victory

President-elect Trump’s election victory has led to a surge in confidence about the state of the global economy, according to a new survey that gauged CEO sentiment following the election.

The survey, which was conducted by Teneo during the three-week period after the election, included the views of more than 300 CEOs of global public companies and 380 institutional investors representing around $10 trillion of company and portfolio value. . It was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

It found that 77% of global CEOs expect the global economy to improve in the first half of 2025, up from 45% last year, an increase of 32 percentage points. That sentiment was shared by 86% of investors.

“For the first time since Teneo conducted this survey, we are seeing significant alignment between CEOs and investors on the direction of the global economy, and confidence has never been higher,” said Teneo CEO Paul Keary.

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President-elect Trump’s upcoming return to the White House has CEOs and investors optimistic about 2025. (DAVID DEE DELGADO/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)

“Buoyed by the ‘Trump effect,’ the market expects a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions, increased hiring and higher levels of US and foreign investment. The United States will clearly be the beneficiary of much of this positive activity, solidifying its position as the most important investment country for global companies,” Keary added.

More than 80% of CEOs and investors expect the M&A market to see a significant return in 2025, up from 68% last year.

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This comes after the Biden-Harris administration scrutinized proposed mergers and launched successful legal challenges to mergers like the Albertsons and Kroger deal that was blocked last week.

Half of global CEOs said they are accelerating their activities in areas such as domestic and international investments as a result of the 2024 elections. The United States ranked as the most attractive investment destination among global CEOs.

US President-elect Donald Trump delivers a speech alongside SoftBank Chairman and CEO Masayoshi Son at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on Monday, December 16. (Reuters/Brian Snyder/Reuters)

Nearly two-thirds of respondents, 64%, said they believe policy changes related to tariffs, as well as tax and regulatory relief, will have a positive impact on their businesses in 2025.

There was a disparity between CEOs of large- and mid-cap companies on the impact of the tariffs. While 80% of mid-cap CEOs said they believe higher tariffs on imports to the United States will have a positive impact, only 13% of large-cap CEOs agreed.

More than three-quarters of CEOs, 76%, said the election outcome will improve the global economy and global stability, while 83% of investors expressed that view. CEOs and investors alike expressed confidence that the companies are positioned to address a range of potentially disruptive geopolitical issues, such as conflicts in the Middle East and Russia’s war against Ukraine.

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The share of CEOs who said China plays a critical role in their corporate strategy has more than doubled in the past two years, from 20% in 2023 to 47% in 2025. About a third of CEOs and investors, 32 % and 31%, respectively, said political disruptions related to China would have the greatest negative impact on their businesses.

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) policies are also coming under new scrutiny: 91% of CEOs say they are recalibrating ESG initiatives due to the politicization of those policies (up from 72% last year). .

Of that group, 40% are being more selective about the issues or topics they address, while 1 in 4 are scaling back ESG programs. Despite those concerns, 56% of global CEOs said they remain committed to balancing ESG priorities with their core business objectives.

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The survey also found that investors and CEOs view investments in artificial intelligence (AI) differently. Nearly 80% of investors expect AI projects to generate a positive return on investment in the first year, while 41% of large-cap CEOs are willing to let AI initiatives mature in one or two years before expecting positive results.