Russia observes while Ally Iran is beaten

Russia’s response to Iran’s help call is to be observed closely on Monday after the United States bombed Tehran’s nuclear facilities during the weekend, but Moscow may not be quick to offer his ally a hand.

The attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, which President Donald Trump described as an “obliteration”, has left the Islamic Republic fighting for the support of the few friends he has on the global stage. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi addressed Moscow on Monday For “serious consultations” with Russian President Vladimir Putin on how to respond to assaults.

Iran has helped Russia with military drones throughout the war in Ukraine, but analysts now say there could be very little can or will to correspond.

“Iran has massively supported the Putin war against Ukraine with weapons and technology. On his trip to Moscow, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, can now ask Moscow to return the favor,” said Holger Schmieding, Berenberg Bank chief economist, in a note on Monday.

“However, Putin probably has little to offer beyond some words. He needs his weapons himself for his continuous aggression against Ukraine,” he said.

Russia also has to step on a very fine line between placating and helping the ally Iran and keep the United States sweets, since it seeks to restore ties with the most friendly administration with Russia of Donald Trump.

“If Putin bother Trump about Iran in a significant way, Trump can change the tactics and impose new heavy sanctions to Russia and/or weaken Putin’s position in other ways,” Schmieding said.

Until now, Moscow’s response to the growing crisis has been silencedWith Russia asking Iran and Israel to negotiate a peaceful end for the crisis.

The Iranian conflict could strengthen Russia’s position in Ukraine modestly, analysts say, since it distracts Western attention, and potentially resources, far from Ukraine. The highest prices of oil could also mean more export income for the war coffers of the Russian oil producer.

At the same time, Russia is observing while another ally of the Middle East weakens, eroding its own support point in the region in the process. Russia has already seen a valuable alliance to be shielded recently through the expulsion of the Bashar al Assad regime in Syria by questioning the future of Moscow’s air and naval bases in the country.

Russia can lose even more about potentially lucrative investments and infrastructure projects, if Iran is severely destabilized. The problem for Moscow is to measure how much you have to win or lose helping or abandoning Iran.

“Moscow itself seems to be undecided what to do of a new war in the Middle East”, Nikita Smagin, an expert in Iranian foreign and national policies in the center of Eurasia Russia Carnegie, Eurasia, Eurasia, said in the analysis.

“On the one hand, Russia has invested a lot in several projects in Iran in the last three years, all of which could now be wasted. At the same time, Moscow hopes to benefit from the instability of the Middle East through the increase in oil prices and the decrease in interest in Ukraine.”

During the possibility that Russia will give Iran any military assistance, Smagin said that the biggest problem for Moscow is the threat to all Iranian companies in which it has actively invested recently, including oil and gas projects, infrastructure and traffic routes.

“A few days before the start of the Israeli operation, the Iranian ambassador to Moscow saying that Russia was the largest foreign investor in the country in 2024. The ambassador did not specify any volume of investment, but the Russian investments were My dear At $ 2.76 billion the previous year. Moscow planned to invest around $ 8 billion in oil and gas projects alone, “said Smagin.

“Now the future of these projects is in doubt.”