Trump is making Europe great again

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Donald Trump will never win the Nobel Peace Prize. But it should be a strong contender for the Carlomagno Award, which is awarded every year to the person who has made the greatest contribution to European Unity.

The president of the United States has courted Russia, undermined faith in the NATO alliance, threatened the EU with tariffs and increased the extreme right in Europe. All this has had a galvanizing effect on the EU. The fundamental steps towards a greater European unit, stagnant for decades, are now underway.

There are three key areas to see. The first is the European defense; The second is the joint European debt; The third is to repair the rape between the United Kingdom and the EU.

Dramatic changes in European public opinion support these developments. TO survey Last week he showed that 78 percent of the British consider Trump as a threat to the United Kingdom. About 74 percent of Germans and 69 percent of the French agree. In another surveyFrance was qualified as a “reliable partner” by 85 percent of the Germans and Great Britain scored 78 percent; The United States has dropped to 16 percent.

Many European leaders agree that Trump’s America is now a threat, although few will say it out loud for diplomatic reasons. They are also uncomfortably aware of how the transatlantic alliance, now in its eighth decade, has made them very dependent on US military support. This is not just a matter of money. The really dangerous dependencies are of the technology and weapons of the United States.

Europeans can see how many problems are Ukrainians after the Trump administration decision to cut intelligence and armament flows. Then they are looking for a two -track policy. They need to delay the compensation of US military support to Europe during as long as possible, while preparing for that moment as possible.

That was the logic behind the decision of last week to allow the European Commission to collect 150 billion euros to spend on the EU defense industry. It is likely that the new expense is concentrated in areas where European countries depend particularly on the United States, such as air defense.

The issuance of common European debt is not just a way to raise money for defense. It also offers the opportunity to build the euro as an alternative to the dollar as a global reserve currency. The whim of the Trump administration means that there is considerable global appetite for an alternative to the United States Treasury Bonds as a safe asset.

The taboo against the common European debt is traditionally strong in frugal Germany. It was partially broken during the pandemic. Now it is likely to be swept. Friedrich Merz, who will be the next German chancellor, is also moving to exempt national spending in defense and infrastructure of his country’s constitutional limits in deficit spending. Its last fiscal prudence means that Germany has much more space to borrow than France or Britain very indebted.

A form of military Keynesianism could reestimulate the largest economy in Europe. As a leader French businessman told me, with more than one touch of ambivalence: “It is very clear. The Germans cannot sell their cars. Then they will do tanks. “

Trump’s last favor for Europe is to accelerate the subsequent approach to Brexit between the EU and the United Kingdom. Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, British and French leaders have worked together in Ukraine. They could form a powerful triumvirate with Merz.

A mechanism to increase military spending would be a new European Defense Fund, in which Great Britain could participate. This would have the additional virtue of giving the United Kingdom a new form of cooperation that avoids reopening Brexit’s box of Pandora.

The possibility of repairing some of the damage caused by Brexit emphasizes that this is not just a moment of threat to Europe. It is also a moment of opportunity. Europe can now offer plausibly a more stable business environment than Trump’s America, which can already be reflected in the relative performance of stock markets in the United States and Europe.

As the Trump administration increases its assault on American universities, there is also the opportunity to attract the main researchers to Europe. The gap in salaries and research money between North America and Europe is large. But the general sums of money involved are small, compared to the amounts that are thrown for defense.

There will be many disagreements and setbacks on the road to the largest European unit. France and Germany are already colliding on how the new EU defense fund will spend their money.

Each clash like that will feed the skepticism of those who say that Europe will never act together. There were similar doubts and setbacks on the way often full of potholes to establish the original European community of coal and steel in the 1950s and the unique currency in the 1990s. But European leaders came there at the end because the political imperative of agreeing was so overwhelming.

All the great jumps forward for the European unit have been caused by geopolitical clashes, first at the end of World War II; Then the end of the cold war. Now, courtesy of Trump, we are seeing the end of the transatlantic alliance. Europe responded strongly and inventively to the last two great challenges. You can do it again.

gideon.rachman@ft.com