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Vladimir Putin’s initial plan to capture Ukraine in a few days ended in disaster. But after Donald Trump established direct peace talks with Moscow, without going through the allies of kyiv and Europe, the Russian president is now closer than ever to obtain what he wanted from his three -year invasion.
Putin’s main ambition, said the people who have spoken to him during the war, is to establish a new security architecture that gives Russia a sphere of influence in Europe, as well as the Yalta conference for the Soviet Union at the end of World War II. .
Now, the United States can be open to let it have it. The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegesh, has dismissed Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO and claim his territory of Russia. Putin and Trump discussed “bilateral economic cooperation”, suggesting that the United States was prepared to reverse their sanctions against Moscow.
And Trump seems to intend to reverse the commitment of the United States with NATO and leave European countries the work of maintaining a peace.
“The situation seems much more favorable for Putin than at any time throughout the war in the last three years,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “If the United States simply ends its military and diplomatic support unilaterally, as well as to share intelligence, then Ukraine will be in a very difficult position. And it will be difficult to get out of it even if Europeans get more involved. ”
In Moscow, there was palpable joy after Wednesday’s call between Trump and Putin.
“A single call can change the course of history: today, the leaders of the United States and Russia have possibly opened a door to a future formed by cooperation, not confrontation,” said Kirill Dmitriev, a head of the Russian Russian Fund The posterior channel speaks with the US for prisoner exchanges.
The call marked a dramatic approximately face of American politics under Joe Biden, Trump’s predecessor, who promised to support Ukraine during “whenever necessary” while working with other Western countries to isolate Russia. Now, the United States has said that victory in the terms of Ukraine is not “realistic”, a change that Moscow acclaimed as a return to reason.
“Finally, Americans are taking things seriously without the useless illusions that have been feeding the Ukrainians since the beginning of the war. It is common sense. And an opportunity to stop war, ”said a former Russian official.
“Putin got rid of any illusion three days later,” when Russia realized that her plans for a Blitzkrieg victory had failed, added the former official. “But Europeans and Americans have been under them since then, and are only beginning to see meaning now.”
The senior Ukrainian and Western officials said that Trump and Putin would probably try to ensure a high fire of one of the next two important dates: Easter, that the Orthodox and Catholic churches will celebrate on April 20 of this year; Or on May 9, when Russia celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany.
“Putin will want (an agreement) on a notable day like this,” said a Ukrainian official.
The Kremlin said Thursday that Putin would welcome Trump to Moscow for the holidays of May 9. The two leaders have presented Saudi Arabia as a potential place for their next meeting.
In Moscow, the markets reacted with joy. The ruble strengthened 5 percent against the dollar and the Moscow main exchange rate increased 2.8 percent to its highest level in nine months.
The uncompromising pro-war praised the call as a sign that Russia’s victory was close.
“It should really hurt for the EU and Ukraine to listen to this. But his opinion no matter, “said Konstantin Malofeyev, a conservative tycoon who directs several Russian voluntary units fighting in Ukraine.” Ukraine is only the pretext for a great dialogue between two large countries about the beginning of a new era in history human “.
Putin told Trump that he wanted to “resolve the reasons for the conflict,” he indicates that Russia has not retired his goal of stopping Ukraine ambitions from joining the West and going back in the security order after the cold war.
Moscow also requires Ukraine to give control over four regions of the southeast, none of which Russia completely controls, and expects the West to raise all the sanctions imposed since 2014.
“The most important thing for Russia is that Ukraine has the weakest security guarantees,” said Gabuev. “Ideally, they want Ukraine to remain a country without investment potential that is weaker as possible and destroying internally.”
As Russia has the advantage on the battlefield, Putin could choose to continue the war if Trump does not accept all his demands, said Dmitry Trenin, a research professor at the Moscow Higher School of Economics.
“Russia takes the need to solve the problem of Ukraine. He is not demanding for peace. He knows that the only guarantees you can trust are those that can be provided, ”said Taninin. “An agreement that does not reach the vital security requirements of Russia would only guarantee that there will soon be another war. Russia will not allow that. “
He added: “The fight will not stop with the beginning of the conversations; And if there is no treatment, it will continue. ”
Ukraine and his European allies are surprised with Trump’s apparent eagerness to accommodate Putin.
“Why are we giving (Russia) everything they want even before negotiations have begun?” Asked EU’s Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas.
A European official said: “It is quite extraordinary that the president has chosen to play his hand in this way. I do not think that any negotiation position has been presented.”
But any type of comprehensive agreement will still require significant contributions from NATO and Ukraine members. “In the spiny substantive affairs it is too early to say what Trump is willing and capable of giving,” said Samuel Charap, a Senior political scientist from Rand. “Ukraine and allies on board will need for those related problems.”
The delegation that Trump designated to negotiate with Russia does not include its own envoy on the conflict, Keith Kellogg, who had been the most open US call to increase the pressure of the sanctions on Moscow and maintain the supply of weapons to Ukraine.
“It suggests that the administration will not take seriously the main concerns of Ukraine,” said a former American official. “Putin would have seen that as a support of his worldview and a step to realize his dream of having a really deep friction between the United States and Europe.”
Trump’s impulse to end the war has quickly registered with Kyiv. A person close to Volodymyr Zelenskyy told The Financial Times that Ukrainian president was not aware of Trump’s call with Putin until the US president called kyiv.
Zelenskyy told journalists on Thursday that “it was not very pleasant” to know that Trump first spoke with the Ukraine adversary. He insisted that “he will not accept.” . . Any bilateral negotiation about Ukraine without us. ”
The imperative, Zelenskyy added, was “not allowing everything to agree with the Putin Plan.”
kyiv hoped that he could convince Trump to make a common position to bring Russia to the table, and had offered access to his reserves of rare earth metals in exchange for the support of the United States.
For now, kyiv and his European allies are watching, horrified, from the outside, fearful that the United States reaches an unfavorable treatment with Putin to end the war, and hit them with the bill.
“Trump is demonstrating to be as bad as we feared. He is willing to make an agreement with Putin at the expense of Ukraine, and he still wants Ukraine to pay him in mineral resources, ”said Volodymyr Kulyk, a professor of political science at kyiv’s School of Economics. “The question is what Ukraine and Europe will do.”
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